Where are we now?
Right in the middle of the first of the small storms before the big one.
The pull-back in the indices over the last fortnight was much deeper than expected even suggesting that 6th August may be an early seasonal low, especially with a strong pull out in most markets initially. However, this appears not to be the case. The seasonal low is still yet to come, with approximately one more week to go (time prediction). We have just set long positions based on this, however with these positions having not been entered and most markets crashing over the last few days, it would suggest there may be a quick shorting opportunity over this coming week before trading long once the low is confirmed, this is what we are very closely looking into prior to sending out shorting information.
Nevertheless, the deep pull back into this low is significant and a sign of things to come as we discussed at the meeting on Wednesday night. The markets are currently in the same phase as they were just prior to the GFC (remember 2022). Even the news sites are today talking about recession again, but no one is labelling a new GFC just yet. No one labelled the last one until after the event. We would like to label it the turn down to the end of an 18 year cycle, ending around January 2022, but more on this in the next post.
If you have any questions please contact us.