Short-term Primary Cycle:
The Primary Cycle is in its accumulation phase as confirmed by last weeks strong move up. We did mention that this rally was likely short-lived, and that was true to say the least.
Price has retraced all the way back and is testing that lower valid trend line, and pull back up at the close.
Long-term Major Cycle:
The major cycle is most likely still in the distribution phase. Nothing has changed here as we are still waiting for the all important cross of the lower valid trendline to signal this cycle has tipped over into mark-down. Fridays bar tested this line for the third time, adding to it’s significance.. Price is unlikely to make new highs for the remainder of 2023 once the lower trundling is broken to the downside. Interestingly the German index retested it’s all time high but then dropped just below its corresponding lower trend line.